RFK Jr.’s Campaign Has A Leak

As we approach the 2024 Election a majority, if not all, of the attention of the mainstream media is focused entirely on former President Donald Trump, and President Joe Biden.

What you won’t hear on the mainstream news is that there is a third candidate who is making a serious impact on polling nationwide, and his name is Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The independent candidate for President was trying to build momentum behind the selection of his running mate this week, when a report written by Diana Falzone appeared in Mediaite announcing his selection of Nicole Shanahan, a wealthy lawyer, and a Democratic donor who was once married to Google cofounder Sergey Brin, as his running mate. That report was published on March 16th.

Within her report, Falzone claims to have obtained her information from a source “close with the campaign.” The source reportedly told Falzone about Shanahan,

“They align on numerous issues. The campaign is also looking for a candidate who can help finance the ballot access initiative. She might be infusing millions of dollars into the campaign to help fund the ballot initiative, which makes her attractive financially; however, she lacks the qualifications to actually do the job.”

RFK Jr. Campaign Leak To Mediaite

One of the largest attention-grabbing potential announcements by the campaign was spoiled by a leak within the organization.

Falzone published an article on February 13th, 2024 in which she described the RFK Jr. campaign as a “mess.” Falzone’s source said within the article, “The campaign is a mess because upper management consists of people who are serving their own needs rather than the candidate’s. There is no one with any political experience and it shows.”

RFK’s campaign has been plagued with numerous leaks, leading to questions surrounding the experience and capability of both his daughter-in-law campaign manager, Fox Kennedy, who is a veteran CIA agent, as well as Del Bigtree, a documentary producer who signed on as RFK communications Director.

Sources told Slingshot.News that most of the most damaging leaks came not from the campaign itself, but rather from one of the two super PAC’s supporting RFK.

Interestingly enough, within her most recent article, Falzone braggs that she was the first to break the news that Kennedy Jr. would be leaving the Democratic Primary field back in September of 2023. Within her article on that subject, she also heavily relies on an anonymous “campaign insider.”

The obvious question is simple. Who is leaking information out of the Kennedy campaign? Falzone has written four separate articles about Kennedy this month.

Kennedy’s pick Shanahan reportedly funded the pricey retro Kennedy Super Bowl advertisement through the ‘American Values’ PAC. The selection shows an effort by the campaign to appeal to Democrat voters, who have been tough on Kennedy since the inception of his campaign for President.

Kennedy Jr. began his candidacy for President as a Democrat, challenging incumbent Joe Biden in the Democratic primaries. After failing to garner much support amongst Democrats, peaking at just 22% of the vote, which occurred immediately after his campaign announcement.

Kennedy had a few major problems as a Democrat candidate. For one, a majority of the people who support his campaign are either registered independents, or registered Republicans. The attorney garners little support in the Democratic field, even with the classic name of Kennedy, which may be ascribed to a portion of the support he received from the Democratic voters.

In addition to his lack of support amongst Democrats, the DNC also made several moves to box Kennedy, and other candidates like Marianne Williamson out of the Democratic Primary.

In October of 2023, Kennedy Jr. decided to depart the Democratic Party, and seek the Presidency as an independent candidate.

Though this declaration brought with it the caveat of obtaining ballot access across the United States, Kennedy’s campaign was prolonged with the decision to change gears.

As an independent candidate, Kennedy Jr. is currently polling at 11% nationally. While that might not seem like a lot, in a race as close as the 2024 Election, his small percentage of support, especially among independent voters, may be enough to turn the tide in certain States on Election Day 2024.

Where Is Kennedy’s Support Coming From?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulls far more support from President Trump’s voting base than he does from Joe Biden. Polling is extremely clear on this issue. An examination of Kennedy’s donors also reveal that he has been able to welcome several large Trump donors, including Timothy Mellon.

Mellon, who has donated over $20 Million to Kennedy Jr. through his ‘American Values PAC’ this cycle, has also donated over $15 Million to the Trump campaign via the ‘Make America Great Again Inc,’ organization.

While polling has shown that Kennedy disproportionately pulls votes away from former President Trump, recent events at the Democratic National Committee tell us that the Democrat Party is also concerned about the impact that Kennedy Jr. may have on the 2024 Election.

The DNC has recently launched an effort to stop third party candidates in 2024 from having an impact on the election. They have reportedly hired veteran Democrat strategist Lis Smith to lead the effort. Forbes reports on that new effort,

The Democratic National Committee has hired a team of top operatives, including veteran Democratic strategist Lis Smith, to devise a communications strategy against Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates, underscoring the party’s anxiety that the race is expected to be so closely contested that any voter loss could sway the election in Trump’s favor, NBC first reported.

The effort comes after Kennedy Jr.’s campaign announced earlier this month it collected enough signatures to put him on the ballot in Nevada, after he qualified for the Utah ballot in January, while the American Values super PAC supporting his candidacy also claims to have the signatures to secure his spot on the ballots in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina.

Forbes

It is obvious that both political parties are afraid of the impact that Kennedy may have in 2024. After the debacle of the 2020 Election, we are acquainted to the fact that just a few votes in a few small precincts can determine the outcome of an entire election. Any votes not going to Trump, or Biden could spell disaster for their election efforts, possibly handing the election to the candidate less damaged by Kennedy.

How Is Kennedy Polling In The Swing States?

Arizona

In Arizona, Kennedy is projected to garner a whopping 10% of the vote. In a recent poll sponsored by Fox News, and conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, former President Trump is currently at 43%, while the incumbent President Biden is at just 39%.

Kennedy’s total percentage is larger than the difference between Biden and Trump, meaning the support that he receives in this election may sway the results in Arizona, which is amongst the key swing states in 2024.

Kennedy’s team has not officially gained ballot access in Arizona to this point.

Michigan

Current polls out of Michigan show Kennedy notching yet another double-digit performance in the 2024 Election. A recent poll by Quinnipiac University shows Kennedy getting 10% of the vote. In that poll, Trump wins the state with 41%, and President Biden gets just 36% of the vote.

It should be noted that President Biden suffered a humiliation in Michigan recently when over 100,000 Michigan Democrats voted ‘uncommitted’ in the Democratic Primary, largely having to do with protests over the President’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. This may signal trouble-to-come for Biden within his own Party.

Once again in the State of Michigan, Kennedy’s total support is greater than the margin between former President Trump and President Joe Biden, meaning that turnout for the Independent candidate may determine the eventual outcome of the State.

Kennedy’s team has not gained ballot access in Michigan at this point.

Georgia

In Georgia, Kennedy has failed to gain the necessary signatures to appear on the Presidential ballot to this point, but his team has claimed that they have received enough signatures to qualify. It must be noted that these signatures are invalidated on a regular basis, and obtaining the necessary number of signatures in any given state is often seen as an impossible task.

The polling from Georgia, shown by Emerson College in a poll sponsored by The Hill, shows Kennedy at just 5%, while former President Trump wins the State with 44% of the vote. That poll shows President Joe Biden losing the state of Georgia with just 37% of the vote.

Of all the swing states, it appears that Georgia is the one in which Kennedy struggles to make much of an impact. Though his 5% support cannot be dismissed, it is substantially less impactful than his support in States like Michigan, or Arizona.

It can also be noted that Trump’s support is stronger in Georgia than in Arizona or Michigan, while Biden’s support is far weaker.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania went for Donald Trump in 2016, but in 2020, became a key part of President Joe Biden’s path to 270 Electoral college votes. In 2024, it appears to be close yet again.

A recent Emerson College poll shows former President Donald Trump at 44%, President Biden at 40%, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5%. President Biden sees his strongest polling numbers of all the swing states in Pennsylvania, however, Kennedy Jr. receives a higher percentage of the vote than separates the two major Party candidates.

In what is expected to be yet another close race in Pennsylvania, Kennedy Jr., who as we stated previously pulls more support from President Trump than Biden, could seriously affect the outcome of the State.

Kennedy has not qualified for ballot access in Pennsylvania yet, but is expected to make a push now that he has named his running mate.

Nevada

A Noble Predictive Insights poll from March 5th has shown that Kennedy Jr. receives 11% of the vote in the State of Nevada, a State in which Kennedy and his campaign have already obtained ballot access. The poll also shows President Trump beating President Biden by a total of 7%, with Trump garnering 40% of the vote to Biden’s 33%.

Once again, Kennedy stands to have a larger margin of support than that which separates Trump and Biden. Unlike the other States on this list, RFK Jr. has already obtained ballot access in Nevada, guaranteeing a three-way race come November in the Silver State.

Wisconsin

The most recent Emerson College poll shows Kennedy Jr. receiving 7% of the vote, with Trump winning the state at 41%, and Biden trailing at 37%. Once again, the independent candidates support is more than the difference separating Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Where Has RFK Jr. Obtained Ballot Access?

To this point, according to his own campaign website, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for ballot access in just four states. Hawaii, Nevada, Utah, and New Hampshire.

Other than those four, the campaign has 15 state ballot access initiatives pending, while another 26 States are pending a push from the campaign following Kennedy’s selection of attorney Nicole Shanahan as his running mate.

Poised To Wreak Havoc

In every swing state, barring Georgia, Robert F. Kennedy’s support is greater than the statistical difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, meaning that the amount of support that he receives may have a tremendous impact of who eventually wins the Presidency.

While Kennedy has no real chance of winning the White House himself, he does have a tremendous opportunity to play a real role in the shaping of this election, and deal damage to both Trump and Biden in key states like Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

There is no guarantee that Kennedy will be on the ballot in enough States to truly have an impact on this election, but his securing of ballot access in Nevada already makes his potential to do damage to both political parties in 2024 extremely serious.

For now, it appears that America will see it’s first real three-way race for President since 1992, when former President Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush with the help of independent candidate Ross Perot. Without Perot, Bush would have won re-election.

In that case, an independent candidate unseated a sitting President, handing the election to Democrat Bill Clinton. It remains to be seen, but with polling data as it sits right now, Kennedy may end up doing more damage to the challenger than the incumbent, but judging by renewed Democrat efforts to squash potential third party candidates nationwide, Kennedy still may inflict some wounds upon the Democrat voting numbers.

Much like Trump in 2016, Kennedy is an unknown. We truly have no idea how many people will turn out to support his campaign. He brings a unique set of policies, which in theory, would inflame both the voters of the Democrat and Republican Party. Kennedy’s position on green energy, being a supporter of the Green New Deal, will undoubtedly be a negative factor for the candidate with conservative and Republican voters in Pennsylvania in Michigan, while his stance on the Southern Border and the COVID-19 vaccines will most likely hurt his support amongst Democrat voters.

Time will tell whether or not Kennedy is an effective political force, but as of right now, he stands to achieve nothing more in 2024 Election than playing spoiler.